Saturday, 30 January 2010

On course for a Hung Parliament (victory, actually)

The much-respected UK Polling Report website is now predicting that the next General Election will result in a Hung Parliament with the Tories short by 3 seats.

The polls are clearly narrowing. If the Tories drop just a few points, which is what usually happens to an opposition as the election date nears, then we are in Hung Parliament territory.

Added to this is the fairly incompetent and duplicitous manner in which the Tories have kicked off their campaign since the New Year. We were promised an initiative, a policy even, every day, so that they would seize the initiative and the electoral high ground. But what we got was a limp and contradictory announcement on tax allowances for married couples, resulting in much muddle as David Cameron tried to triangulate the various constituencies he's trying to placate. Then we had the wonderful sight of their first campaign poster backfiring quicker and louder than an Austin Maxi. So wonderful to see that the first thing the voters will remember (if anything) about Cameron's campaign is that he plumped for style above substance by focussing on an image of himself. Then he showed that he was more interested in image than reality, by air-brushing the image. He even forgot to mention on the poster the name of his party. It was like the front page of an instruction manual fronted by Star Trek's "Data" android. Bland and anodyne. And pointless.

Imagine if Labour circa 1996 had messed their first election poster up so magnificently. They would have been lampooned in the press. Of course our media has its own narrative that it will be very reluctant to budge from: Tory resurgence, Labour decline, useless and unpopular Prime Minister, Tory victory, Labour split, etc, etc. The truth is that David Cameron's party hasn't changed. They are the same party they always were. They're policy-lite and even their PR is malfunctioning at the first sight of danger.

For this, and many other reasons, Labour will win an outright majority in May (or sooner).

1 comment:

  1. I'd rather Labour had messed up their first election poster in 1996 than the economy. Would have been far less expensive than the £900bn of debt we now have!

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